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Dec. 4th, 2008

Fundamental Analysis and Financial Statements



Forex fundamental analysis involves examining the intrinsic value of a nationʼs currency based on economic news releases that reflect the strength, or weakness, of a countryʼs economy.
Fundamental traders follow these news announcements, known as "fundamental indicators," because they paint a picture of a currency's strength in relation to other countries.
Fundamental indicators are reports that include statistical data on things such as employment, gross domestic product (GDP), international trade, retail sales, housing, manufacturing, and interest rates.

The stability, growth, or decline in any of these sectors may have an effect – direct or indirect – on the value of a countryʼs currency.
Central banks play a key role in the Forex market because they have the responsibility of changing the countryʼs "base" interest rate. A central bank has to find a fine balance when setting interest rates as it wants to maintain growth in the economy, but at the same time it has to be careful to curtail inflation.
The bankʼs decisions on whether to raise, cut, or hold the interest rate fuels speculation in the Forex market, where the value of a currency, or group of currencies, changes in real time.
In addition to information about a country’s
economy, the value of a currency is connected to national and international political events, elections, and changes in government trade policies.
The prices of sensitive commodities like oil and gasoline are an important fundamental indicator as high prices can hurt consumer spending and confidence, and curtail the activities of certain businesses and government services.

Natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and militarily actions in a sensitive region cause instability in the world and have a significant impact on the Forex market as they develop. These types of evens can be hard to predict in advance.
The ability to identify trends in macroeconomic indicators and reading central bankʼs current and future actions is a valuable tool that comes from following financial news, watching the markets, and trading Forex.

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Forex Fundamental Analysis


There are two major methods of analysis used in forecasting the behavior of the Forex market; they are Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis.
They differ greatly but the trader can apply both to complement and supplement the study of the market for achieving superior results.
They also have the same goal i.e. to predict a price or movement of the market. The technical analysis studies the effect while the fundamental analysis studies the cause of market movement.

Fundamental Analysis has a very broad spectrum. One aspect looks at the general or qualitative factors; the other side considers tangible and measurable i.e. the quantitative factors.
Use Fundamental Analysis With Technical Analysis
In general the fundamental analysis method looks to forecast the future of price movements based on events that have not taken place yet. Important factors and statistical methods are used to predict how these events will affect supply and demand and the rates of the Forex.
We must remember that Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis are not the reliable factor on their own, but each needs to be used in conjunction with the other to form opinion about the changes in the Forex market.

Fundamental analysis is therefore the method of forecasting the future price movements based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that are going to affect the basic supply and demand of the market.
A fundamental analysis involves in-depth study of the market. It focuses on what is going to happen in a market based on supply and demand, seasonal cycles, and weather and government policy.



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